Pakistan’s headline inflation is expected to ease to 10.0% year-on-year (YoY) in September 2026, driven by a drop in food prices that helped offset sharp increases in transport and electricity costs, according to the latest estimates by AKD Research. On a month-on-month (MoM) basis, the National Consumer Price Index (N-CPI) is projected to increase by 0.9%, rising from 300.4 in August to 303.1 in September.
Key Basket Breakdown & Price Trends
- Food Price Relief: Carrying a 34.5% weight in the inflation basket, food prices are projected to fall 0.7% MoM due to improved supply conditions, bringing YoY food inflation to 7.2%. Notable price drops include tomatoes (-25.2%), chicken (-7.2%), eggs (-2.6%), potatoes (-2.2%), pulse moong (-1.5%), sugar (-1.0%), and rice (-0.5%). Conversely, onion prices are expected to jump 23.0% MoM due to Afghan border closures, alongside a 2.1% uptick in wheat.
- Transport Costs Surge: Transport inflation is forecast at a steep 29.7% YoY, marking the highest annual increase among major groups. Month-on-month, the group is expected to climb 7.6%—primarily driven by a 15.4% hike in motor spirit prices and a 10.9% increase in high-speed diesel.
- Housing & Energy Pressures: Housing inflation is projected at 12.0% YoY and 2.0% MoM. Electricity charges are expected to rise 10.1% MoM following a higher Fuel Charges Adjustment (FCA) of Rs 2.06/kWh and a positive Quarterly Tariff Adjustment (QTA) of Rs 0.52/unit. Liquefied hydrocarbon prices are also projected to rise 8.6% MoM due to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Other Major Sectors: Communication inflation is expected to reach 13.7% YoY, driven by higher communication service rates (+16.7%). Clothing (+8.9%), education (+7.8%), health (+7.3%), and restaurants (+6.1%) also contributed to annual price growth, while recreation and culture recorded the lowest YoY gain at 2.4% due to falling textbook costs.
