British shoppers are being urged to prepare for higher supermarket bills this festive season, with food inflation projected to hit nearly 4% by Christmas and climb to a peak of 6.4% by July.
While the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) noted that the Christmas forecast is considerably better than the 9% surge predicted back in April, it warned that price pressures are far from over. Rather than cooling down, inflation is expected to remain uncomfortably above historical averages well through the second half of next year.
To put the surge into perspective:
- The Past Four Years: A grocery trip that cost £100 in January 2020 already sets consumers back £138.60 today—a 38.6% increase, according to the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.
- The Year Ahead: The FDF forecasts that the same basket of food will climb by an additional £8.90 (6.4%), reaching £147.50 by mid-summer.
Representing over 12,000 food and drink manufacturers, the FDF cautioned that ongoing geopolitical conflicts, unpredictable extreme weather, and a wave of new regulatory costs around packaging and recycling mean “disruption is the new normal” for the food supply chain.
