The era of extreme volatility in the olive oil sector has officially come to an end, according to Deoleo, the world’s largest olive oil producer. The company, which owns major household brands like Bertolli and Carbonell, reports that the market has transitioned into a far more stable phase, partly aided by an unexpected packaging trend boosting sales in the United States.
Deoleo CEO Cristóbal Valdés confirmed that the highly turbulent market cycle seen between 2022 and 2024—which severely impacted the industry—is now a thing of the past.
Better Weather Drives Supply Recovery
The turnaround is largely due to recent favorable rainfall in key producing regions, particularly Spain. This weather shift has set the stage for a strong upcoming global harvest, creating a more balanced and reliable supply chain.
This stability offers a sigh of relief for an industry recently plagued by climate change, water scarcity, and disease, which had analysts worried about dramatic seasonal supply swings. The period from 2022 to 2024 was previously described by Deoleo as one of the toughest in history. During those years, intense heatwaves and severe droughts across southern Europe devastated olive crops, triggering unprecedented price surges that stunned both retailers and consumers.
Prices Drop as Demand Bounces Back
With supply lines recovering, prices have steadily declined, encouraging more consumers to welcome the Mediterranean staple back into their kitchens. Valdés noted that predictable pricing throughout the value chain is actively reviving global household demand.
As a major global price benchmark alongside Italy and Greece, Spain has seen wholesale extra virgin olive oil (EVOO) prices drop to around €3.90 ($4.47) per kilogram. This marks a massive decline from January 2024, when wholesale prices spiked to a historic high of €9.30 per kilogram.
Squeeze Bottles Spark U.S. Sales Boom
Deoleo has observed steady household customer growth across all income demographics in the United States. Interestingly, the company attributes a significant portion of this American growth to a creative packaging redesign rather than just falling prices.
Valdés emphasized that catering to the cooking habits of younger and newer consumers through innovation is currently a primary market driver. A prime example is the success of value-added, functional packaging. In fact, user-friendly squeeze formats—such as Bertolli’s “Dress and Drizz” bottles—are currently fueling 40% of the entire olive oil category’s growth in the U.S.
